As of this moment, and by the end of writing this piece this may change, Joe Biden remains the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, which is pretty amazing. Post-debate we gave him a 50/50 shot of surviving the Friday after the debate. Yet, now over a week out from the slack jawed performance (and that is a legitimate thing to say, it’s hard but it is fair) he is still the nominee. On a certain level, the sheer audacity and stubbornness is pretty amazing.
It is our belief that Biden has little chance of winning the presidency again at this point, but weirder things have happened in American politics. Perhaps we will look back on midnight November 6th of this year, and reflect on how so many people were wrong as a suddenly younger looking Biden smiles, takes to the podium, and declares victory.
“We’ll we won!” He will declare as pundits and Democratic loyalists alike celebrate and drink champagne deep into the early morning hours secure in knowing they defeated the arch nemesis of everything they have come to stand for, Donald Trump.
“I told you so.” He will declare, with Jill clapping away and Hunter in the wings doing whatever Hunter does on such nights.
We suppose this COULD still happen. But it is unlikely.
A good friend of this organization who is pretty solidly on what most people would probably call the left also agrees that the above scene is unlikely. He argued in a piece recently that Dems should seize this moment as an opportunity to reinvigorate their chances in the fall. He argued that this was the Democratic Party’s one relatively clean chance to get someone in who could beat Donald Trump.
From a pure politics standpoint we find it very hard to disagree with him. At this point Kamala, even Kamala, probably stands a better shot at beating Trump. If there was a time to change horses now is the time.
It seems almost unfair to ask the rank and file to vote for Biden given what has now been made public for all to see. Biden appears to have serious issues. Issues serious enough that pulling the lever (does any jurisdiction do that any more?) might be a bit too much for many just generally inclined toward the Democratic Party.
Yet, and we have seen this in our own explorations over the past week, there are still many rank and file Dem voters who are attached to Biden, even given his legitimately pathetic performance in the debate and in the days since. (That Stephanopoulos interview basically did nothing to move the needle back.) We have heard many variations on why this cohort remains loyal, from “we’re voting for the people around Biden anyway” (which we find refreshingly honest and from a hardcore politics standpoint, sensical in a way) , to “you guys are being agist he’s fine”, or similar and equally nonsensical explanations.
But the fact remains that a solid part of the Democratic Party as far as we can see wants to stick with Biden, AT THIS MOMENT.
It is interesting though that the people who actually RUN the Democratic Party, you know the people who are “super-delegates” who get to override the votes of the everyday people in the party (we’re looking at you Bernie Sanders/RFK Jr. voters, boy did the DNC screw you), appear to be jumping ship. Over the weekend there were dozens of articles about party bigwigs freaking out and looking for new paths.
Biden blasts ‘elites’ urging him to exit race in surprise interview
Prominent House Democrats Want Biden to Exit 2024 Race
(Sen.) Warner organizing Senate Democrats to ask Biden to leave presidential race: reports
And consider this from New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd (yes that Maureen Dowd).
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Against Crony Capitalism to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.